Two weeks into the invasion of Ukraine, Olivier Guitta argued that Putin had been remaking the world order for years, and that the war would reach well beyond Ukraine. Europe's energy, Turkey's role, Wagner's reach in Africa and the risk over Taiwan were all in the frame.
What Olivier set out in March 2022
A plan years in the making. Putin’s aim of restoring a “Great Russia” goes back to his KGB years in Dresden. The demands he sent the US and NATO before the invasion put it in writing.
A decade of groundwork. Currency reserves built up, energy used to pressure European capitals, influence operations across the West, and a Russian hand in pushing France out of West Africa.
“He needs to be stopped by force.”
What Putin misread. Ukrainian resistance, sanctions that came fast and wide, Germany’s 100 billion euro defence pivot, and companies walking out of Russia.
He will not stop. No coup or revolution was likely to remove him. Violence against civilians would escalate, Wagner was recruiting Syrian mercenaries, and Moldova and Georgia could be next. A direct war with NATO was unlikely.
The order shifts regardless. Fossil fuel markets realign, the move to clean energy speeds up, Turkey grows as an energy transit state, and the risk of a China-Taiwan crisis rises.
Putin Has Already Changed the Global Order
Olivier's 2019 warning on Mali is on the Track Record →