What we do
Be the organisation that saw it coming
Senior geopolitical advice built around the decisions in front of you, so the next crisis lands on a plan rather than a surprise.
What we deliver is judgement
The big decisions often get made on a headline, a gut feel or a country report written for everyone else.
With us, you make them knowing where your organisation is exposed, what it could cost and what is likely to come next, on your question, your footprint and your timeline, and for no one else.
WHAT WE DOWhich of these is closest to your situation?
These are the most common ways in, and from there every engagement is shaped around your organisation.
01Ongoing Advisory
A standing read on your exposure, as it changes.
What if the war does not end in weeks?
A software company has developers in Ukraine when Russia invades. How long does this last? Do the engineers move to Poland? Does the office move altogether? The questions change every month, and so does the answer.
What you get
Delivered asA standing call at whatever rhythm suits you, plus written analysis, and anyone in your business can pick up the phone. You can set it up as Yearly Consulting Agreements or Weekly Customised Conference Calls.
Right forOrganisations exposed across more than one region, where the question changes month to month.
The result You see events coming instead of reacting to them, and nothing you are told goes to another client.
02Regional and Thematic Briefs
The answer you need before a decision with a date on it.
What if we open next year and the region is at war?
A hotel group is weighing a new property in the Middle East. Going in early could leave it caught in a conflict, and waiting could hand the return to someone else. It needs an answer before the decision date.
What you get
Delivered asA written brief of four or five pages on your question, plus a short, recorded briefing your whole team can watch.
Right forDecisions with a deadline, and strategies that turn on how a region moves.
The result A decision you can defend, made on time, on a read your competitors do not have.
03Country and Security Risk Assessments
Where you are exposed, and where the opportunity is.
What if Mali falls to the jihadists tomorrow?
A natural resources business has assets there. What would a new regime do with them? Do you negotiate, knowing that paying armed groups is what put Lafarge in court over Syria? And what if the movement spreads to neighbouring countries, or carries its attacks into Europe?
What you get
Delivered asA country by country read across your own footprint, from people on the ground, covering the hotspots, where your people and sites are exposed, and which markets are opening up. Each country takes about a week, and you choose whether it arrives as five written pages or a recording of an hour or more.
Right forOrganisations operating across several countries, and the security, legal and strategy teams answerable for them.
The result You know which location is the real problem, and which is the real opportunity.
04In-Person Executive Briefings
Your board hears it first hand, and asks its own questions.
What if there is a war in Europe within two years?
For a business operating there, it is a board question. The leadership team needs the likelihood of each scenario, what preparing for the worst would involve, and where the failure of imagination sits in its own plans.
What you get
Delivered asOur founder, Olivier Guitta, in the room with your board or leadership team, answering whatever they ask on the spot, with the read that is ahead of the headlines.
Right forBoards, executive committees and leadership teams facing a decision or an exposure.
The result The people who decide have heard it directly, so decisions move faster.
Every outcome on the table, weighted
You see the full range of what could happen, how likely each outcome is, and what it would mean for you.
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Decades of human relationships inside governments, militaries and intelligence services, and among academics, journalists, intellectuals and executives. What they tell us is checked on the ground, including in conflict zones, before it reaches you, and every source stays protected.
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Each outcome comes with a probability against it, including the ones nobody else names. The outcome missing from a plan is rarely the likely one.
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Probabilities are not set once and filed. As a situation develops they change, and you hear when they do.
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Each read ends with what it means for your people, your contracts or your portfolio, and what to do next.
How we can work together
Every engagement is scoped to the decision in front of you, and most start small and grow with the exposure.
No organisation is too small for this. Since Ukraine, geopolitical risk has become a real issue for mid-sized firms that never used to think about it, and they get the same senior read as a multinational.
Fees are agreed before anything starts, based on what you are deciding.
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Single commission
One decision, answered properly.
A brief or a country assessment on a fixed scope and fee, often with a briefing for the board on top. Where most relationships begin.
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Ongoing advisory
A standing read on the regions you depend on.
Regular calls and written analysis built around your exposure, with a direct line for anyone in your business.
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Board-level advisory
Your whole leadership team working from the same read.
Everything in ongoing advisory, plus in-person briefings with our founder and access across every department.
What a client says
“Olivier has had the strongest track record of any consultant I've worked with on Iran since April 2024, particularly when it comes to anticipating escalation and correctly framing the bigger-picture trajectory of the Iran-US conflict.
His edge revolves mostly from being on the ground, speaking directly with relevant people, and combining that access with an unusually strong ability to think in probabilistic rather than binary terms, something that has been highly valuable in helping us navigate markets.”
Jerome VivSenior Analyst, Hermeneutic
Not sure which of these fits?
Tell us what you are deciding and we will suggest the right way in.
Request a briefing