Intelligence
Our written analysis, video commentary and published pieces, with an early read on what is coming and what it could mean for markets, trade and security.
Iran's escalation, and what happens after America leaves
Between September and November 2026, Olivier Guitta tracked Iran's escalation in four short videos. Sanctions would not stop it, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia could pull in the UK, Pakistan and Turkey, and terrorism is Tehran's Plan B. Once America leaves, the Gulf could face a confrontation lasting five to ten years.
Black Sea ship attacks and the risk of a wider war in Europe
Nine ships were attacked in the Black Sea in ten days, most likely by Russia, and ships from NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, and from Turkey, were among those hit, with lives lost. Olivier Guitta sees it as the place where one incident could spark a major regional war.
The Bushehr nuclear risk to the Gulf
Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant sits in an earthquake zone, runs on decades-old safety systems and is now inside a war. An accident or strike there would hit the Gulf states harder than Iran, and few were talking about it
What the Iran war means for oil and markets
How long the US and Israeli war with Iran could last, where it could spread and what it would mean for oil and markets, from a call with Coleman Research in March 2026. Around a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and mining it could disrupt global trade for six to twelve months.
Iran’s mine threat to the Strait of Hormuz
Nearly a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could mine it within hours, and the US Navy no longer has the minesweepers to clear it quickly, so a handful of cheap mines could hold up tankers and oil markets for months.
India-China border: calm on the surface, tense underneath
The India-China border has been quiet since the 2023-24 disengagement deals, but neither side has stood down and Beijing is still pressing its claims. A miscalculation would reach metals markets and Indo-Pacific trade routes.
Putin has already changed the global order
Two weeks into the invasion of Ukraine, Olivier Guitta argued that Putin had been remaking the world order for years, and that the war would reach well beyond Ukraine. Europe's energy, Turkey's role, Wagner's reach in Africa and the risk over Taiwan were all in the frame.