Between September and November 2026, Olivier Guitta tracked Iran's escalation in four short videos. Sanctions would not stop it, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia could pull in the UK, Pakistan and Turkey, and terrorism is Tehran's Plan B. Once America leaves, the Gulf could face a confrontation lasting five to ten years.
Jump to our call ↓9 September, why sanctions won't work
"We've seen that over time sanctions have not worked. They have really put pressure on the population, but not on the dictators and the regime."
"If they're pushed to the brink, the IRGC will stop at nothing to conduct massive terror attacks in the West."
"The problem with Iran is not going to go away tomorrow, and not even in 6 months. Might take years."
"So for me the worst is yet to come."
18 September, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia
"Trump has clearly said that he would not attack the Houthis. And now Saudi Arabia is left to fend off for itself."
"Saudi Arabia has defense agreement with some European nations, including the UK."
"If it involves Pakistan, Turkey, maybe the UK at some point, then you turn into something that is not just a regional localized conflict but something of a major extension and many more players coming to the fore."
"The worst is yet to come in the region and ... the markets are not evaluating how quickly the situation can deteriorate."
Olivier, later: "On September 18, I specifically said that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, France and the United Kingdom would become involved in the Saudi-Houthi confrontation. All five have now become involved."
2 October, Tehran's Plan B
"Two weeks ago, I predicted that France, the UK, Pakistan and Turkey would become increasingly involved."
"Iran is resorting to one of its preferred asymmetric weapons: terrorism."
"Two attacks have reportedly been foiled in recent days, including one targeting a Royal Air Force base in the UK and another involving a plane from Dubai."
"This is significant because it potentially takes the conflict beyond the conventional battlefield."
"The key question now is not only what Iran does militarily. It is where Tehran takes the conflict next."
7 November, after America leaves
"Airstrikes alone won't deliver fundamental political change in Tehran."
"Iranian retaliation could intensify, targeting military, energy and economic interests."
"The real question isn't just what happens during the strikes. It's what happens after America leaves."
The call
"After US disengagement, the Gulf could face a confrontation with Iran lasting 5–10 years."