Intelligence
Our written analysis, video commentary and published pieces, with an early read on what is coming and what it could mean for markets, trade and security.
Iran's escalation, and what happens after America leaves
Between September and November 2026, Olivier Guitta tracked Iran's escalation in four short videos. Sanctions would not stop it, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia could pull in the UK, Pakistan and Turkey, and terrorism is Tehran's Plan B. Once America leaves, the Gulf could face a confrontation lasting five to ten years.
Black Sea ship attacks and the risk of a wider war in Europe
Nine ships were attacked in the Black Sea in ten days, most likely by Russia, and ships from NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, and from Turkey, were among those hit, with lives lost. Olivier Guitta sees it as the place where one incident could spark a major regional war.
What the Iran war means for oil and markets
How long the US and Israeli war with Iran could last, where it could spread and what it would mean for oil and markets, from a call with Coleman Research in March 2026. Around a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and mining it could disrupt global trade for six to twelve months.