Intelligence
Our written analysis, video commentary and published pieces, with an early read on what is coming and what it could mean for markets, trade and security.
The Bushehr nuclear risk to the Gulf
Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant sits in an earthquake zone, runs on decades-old safety systems and is now inside a war. An accident or strike there would hit the Gulf states harder than Iran, and few were talking about it
What the Iran war means for oil and markets
How long the US and Israeli war with Iran could last, where it could spread and what it would mean for oil and markets, from a call with Coleman Research in March 2026. Around a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and mining it could disrupt global trade for six to twelve months.
Iran’s mine threat to the Strait of Hormuz
Nearly a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could mine it within hours, and the US Navy no longer has the minesweepers to clear it quickly, so a handful of cheap mines could hold up tankers and oil markets for months.
Putin has already changed the global order
Two weeks into the invasion of Ukraine, Olivier Guitta argued that Putin had been remaking the world order for years, and that the war would reach well beyond Ukraine. Europe's energy, Turkey's role, Wagner's reach in Africa and the risk over Taiwan were all in the frame.