Called 13 December 2019 and 15 February 2022 · Confirmed April 2026
Called more than six years ahead
The call, as published
"One sure thing is that if France leaves totally and there's no real Western force replacing them, there is a high risk that countries like Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali could fall in the hands of the jihadists, as it was almost the case of Mali back in 2013."
And when France announced it was leaving
"As expected, France to leave Mali altogether but to stay in the Sahel. Wonder how Russian PMC Wagner is going to tackle the jihadists throughout Mali. Doubt that they will do any much better than the French..."
Watch
What happened
France withdrew, and Russia's Wagner Group took its place. By April 2026, jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda were on the verge of bringing down the Malian government, and Russian influence in the Sahel had failed to contain the insurgency.
What it meant for a business
Mining, energy and logistics firms across the Sahel had years of notice that their security cover was leaving, and that what replaced it would not hold.
Olivier Guitta also lists this call on his personal site, olivierguitta.com ↗
