Called 8 and 14 October 2023 · Confirmed by mid-2026
Called more than two years ahead
The call, as published
"In light of the scale of the terror attacks carried out in Israel by the Palestinian terrorists of Hamas, a de facto Iranian proxy, this could be the end of the proxy war between Israel and Iran since Jerusalem will hit the mullahs hard in the near future."
And six days later
"The markets have not priced any risk of a potential direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Jerusalem will likely go after the mullahs personally along with the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), including hitting them in the wallet."
"Such a scenario of Israel/Iran war would have dramatic consequences on the global security and global economy: Iran could block the Strait of Ormuz, could attack oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and/or the UAE. Oil price could double and a global recession would ensue."
Watch the call
What happened
Four of the five have happened. Israel and the US went to war with Iran in February 2026, Iranian leaders and IRGC commanders were killed, Iran moved to mine the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian strikes hit energy sites in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Oil rose about 45% at the height of the crisis, short of the doubling.
What it meant for a business
More than two years out, energy buyers, shippers and investors in Gulf infrastructure were told which routes and assets would be in the firing line, and that the markets had not priced it in.
Olivier Guitta also lists this call on his personal site, olivierguitta.com ↗
