There is a possible time bomb that has been totally ignored: the battle over the Mediterranean pipelines. Indeed, this matter is likely to be the most important energy issue for Europe in decades to come and could possibly trigger a conflict between Turkey and its neighbors.

Is there a possibility of a Chinese military operation in Taiwan? One vital piece of the equation is that China knows it has an edge over the U.S.; indeed America has almost lost all war games against China in the past ten years.

AQIM’s Emir Droukdel was allegedly on his way to a meeting with Ag Ghali when he was killed along some of his associates in Mali. Was the meeting to talk about the bloody war with Islamic State? Looking at options on the table: Continue the fight; a truce; a merger? Or look at peace negotiations with Mali that the president is pushing for?

China has bet on the low-end of the pharmaceutical industry, becoming in just a few years the largest producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients, antibiotics and generic drugs. With stats similar to a lot of Western countries, the U.S. imports 95% of its ibuprofen, 91% of its hydrocortisone, 40 to 45% of its penicillin from China. China holds a huge power over most of the developed world and could possibly turn off the tap of medicines coming in.

Washington also implemented crippling sanctions on Tehran and acted militarily by killing in January 2020 the de facto Number 2 of the regime, the terror master Qassem Soleimani. Since then, in a re-election year and the Covid-19 pandemic originated in China, Iran seems to have taken a backseat on Trump’s agenda.

The escalation between the U.S and China, whether militarily or economically or financially, is not going to be just a foreign policy matter but also a domestic one. China’s image has dramatically worsened with now 2/3 of Americans having a negative view of Beijing. China will be a huge issue for the upcoming U.S. presidential election and both candidates have already begun portraying themselves as being tough on Beijing.

The backlash to China’s policy has already crossed over the business world and negative consequences are in store. The E.U. Competition czar, Margrethe Vestager, said that Europe must be ‘vigilant’ about China’s corporate takeovers on the continent.

It is very significant move because Germany is Hezbollah Central in Europe. Germany has the largest Shiite population on the continent and the country has historically had not only a very close relationship with Iran but also with Hezbollah. For proof, Germany has always been the mediator between the group and Israel when it came to exchange of prisoners or dead soldiers.

Despite the over-repeated fact that the latest oil crisis stemmed from a Russia-Saudi Arabia war over production cuts, the reality is likely quite different. Indeed, it is alleged that there was a secret Russia-Saudi Arabia deal to bankrupt the U.S. shale industry by making the price of oil plunge for a while.

Recently, West Africa has witnessed both co-operation and fighting between the two competing jihadist groups. First, late last year al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates launched a seemingly coordinated campaign to isolate Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, by periodically seizing control of highways into the city of 2.2 million people.

Jihadist groups are far from focusing only on the west: they are still targeting their fellow Muslims. So in the most telling case two men, including a member of a jihadist network, were arrested in Tunisia over an alleged terrorist plot to infect security force personnel with Covid-19. One of the terrorists is accused of having used his influence over supporters displaying symptoms of the virus.

“He was a nasty guy but it’s been five years since he disappeared, we don’t know what he was up to,” said Olivier Guitta, director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in London. “Is this guy coming into Europe with an idea of committing attacks? Or is he a reformed Jihadist?”

Making a clean break with the Bashir regime, going after Islamists, getting close to the US and Israel have angered a lot of powerful people in Sudan. For proof, in March, PM Hamdok survived an assassination attempt when an explosive device went off near his convoy in the capital, Khartoum.

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, Boko Haram and its splinter group, Islamic State in the West Africa Province (ISWAP) have redoubled their attacks in the region. For proof in Chibok since January the local government area has been attacked more than 20 times.

Had China taken proactive measures to contain the pandemic in December 2019, the number of Covid-19 cases could have been mitigated by up to 95 %. Some are rightly calling for the Chinese regime to be punished through legal means for its criminal behaviour.

Despite empty places because of Covid-19, there are locations that are extremely crowded and that are hospitals. Coincidentally, in late 2016, Islamic State called its followers in Europe to target hospitals in retaliation to what was being done by Assad and Russia in Syria.

Indonesia, the most populous Muslim nation in the world, has decided not to repatriate the former Islamic State Indonesians detained mainly in northeast Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan. They officially numbered 689 but the country’s Ministry of Law and Human Rights said recently that the figure was as high as 1,276.

The situation in Mozambique is so dire that a major opposition party has called on the government to declare a state of war in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, where jihadist attacks, including some claimed by Islamic State, have been going on for several years.

Now, with the ramp-up of Turkey’s military intervention against Assad forces in Idlib, the West is in a pickle to decide where to stand. Indeed, on one hand, the West feels that Turkey is doing the moral thing to go after the bloodthirsty dictator Assad, responsible for over half a million deaths and 12 million displaced.

Now that there is a lot of talk about the US withdrawing from the area, the terrorism issue might soar even more. A very dark prospect for West African nations that have been frankly at a loss to fight off the jihadists and are logically lobbying the US not to leave.

Israel has a card to play, especially in the Sahel – an arc of land immediately south of the Sahara Desert and stretching across the African continent. Terrorism from jihadist groups such as Islamic State, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram, has become a top priority for countries there, such as Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso and Nigeria.

“Both sides are equally to blame,” says Olivier Guitta, a Libya specialist who runs Globalstrat, a London-based risk-management consultancy. “The main issues are not Libyan issues, it’s a world issue. But none of the parties on both sides are going to give up. There’s too much at stake.”

Islamic State, the supposedly almost-defunct jihadist group, is not only making a comeback in Syria and Iraq but also in a place that has recently grabbed the headlines: Libya.

On January 2, the Turkish parliament voted for a one-year authorization to send troops to Libya to support the Fayez al-Sarraj Government of National Accord (GNA). President Erdogan had not really waited for this vote since in the last few weeks 300 Syrian mercenaries have already been fighting in Libya alongside the GNA.

First, it is important to note that the Iranian regime has been at war with the West since it came to power in 1979, and that countries such as France and the United Kingdom have directly suffered casualties at the hands of Tehran. After swallowing 40 years of terror attacks, kidnappings, without any real retaliation from the West, the American strike against Soleimani was the first answer.

“For sure it’s not the end of the line,” Olivier Guitta told CNBC’s “Street Signs.” “Tehran is usually taking its time to retaliate ... Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards want to take revenge. They will use asymmetric warfare, terrorism,” but likely remain measured “because they know that Trump is extremely forceful when it comes to American lives, and they are not going to take the risk,”

Olivier Guitta, managing director of GlobalStrat, says one possible result of the drone strike on Soleimani might be an increase in Iraqi nationalist sentiment. He said "an anti-foreigner front" may emerge, one able to bridge the sectarian rift.

"For all the talk about a full upscale war between Iran and the U.S. over the killing of Tehran's terror master Qassem Soleimani, the fact that Iran now realizes America is not a paper tiger anymore will resonate in the ears of Supreme Leader Khameini," says counterterrorism analyst Olivier Guitta, who runs GlobalStrat, a London-based risk consultancy.

With more former Islamic State fighters expected to return to Europe and some 500 convicted jihadists due to be freed from European jails in the next two years, several organizations collecting evidence of crimes against the Yazidi are racing to build watertight cases, said Olivier Guitta, director of GlobalStrat, a security consulting firm.

Not only have major loopholes in the judicial system made it easier for terrorists but also the light sentencing of terrorists is at the core of the issue. In the UK, the average jail sentence for terrorists behind life-threatening acts of violence is 9.4 years for those causing explosions endangering lives, while those convicted of “preparing terrorist acts” were jailed for 8.4 years on average. Ridiculously lenient.

Es sei wichtig, sich jeden Fall genau anzuschauen, betont IS-Experte Olivier Guitta von der Beratungsfirma "GlobalStrat" in London. Es gehe darum, Frauen, die nur für ihre Männer gekocht haben, von denjenigen zu unterscheiden, die etwa Teil der IS-Sittenpolizei waren. Der Westen dürfe dabei nicht naiv sein, warnt Guitta.

Salafism has expanded in Europe recently: from Belgium, where the federal state security agency has listed more than 100 Salafist organisations active in the country to France where the number of Salafist mosques has grown from 15 in 1990 to 60 in 2015 to 130 in 2018. Sweden is not spared as well, according to the report “Between Salafism and Salafi Jihadism”, the number of Islamist extremists over the past decade there has grown tenfold, from 200 to 2,000.

A la suite de l’attaque contre la préfecture de police de Paris, dont l’assaillant fréquentait depuis des années une mosquée contrôlée par les Frères musulmans, le consultant Olivier Guitta souligne le rôle des mosquées et des imams dans ces passages à l’acte.

"Regarding Saudi Arabia in Yemen, the best outcome they can hope for is a draw," said Guitta. "A victory should have happened in the first year (of their intervention). Now it is turning into a quagmire a la Vietnam."

Olivier Guitta, said the recent white nationalist attacks against Muslims do not appear to be revenge for jihadist terrorist attacks. For now, he said, there is no far-right global terror organization in the mold of al-Qaida or Islamic State that attackers “could belong to or claim responsibility for.”

"I call it the McDonald's of terrorism. It's accessible to all," said Olivier Guitta, a London-based terrorism expert who runs GlobalStrat, a risk and security consultancy. "You just have to make a video, name-check the Islamic State, and that's it, you’re part of it."

After an unprecedented wave of jihadist terrorism, since 2015, in France, the UK, Germany, Spain among others, now is the time to reflect on how Western counter-terrorism strategies might miss the point. Indeed, while going after the operatives is a must, the West needs also to have an arsenal to target the ideological terror masters.

More than 500 incarcerated Islamist militants are due to be freed in Europe over the next two years, according to Olivier Guitta, head of the geopolitical risk company GlobalStrat.

“Isis returnees have been in the area, and made plans to attack targets there, especially hotels and churches,” said Olivier Guitta, a French analyst.

Olivier Guitta, head of geopolitical risk company GlobalStrat, said the far right has strong roots in France. "He was obviously radicalised and this [his visit to France] was a field trip, if you will, to basically convince him that his views were right on target," he said.

“Hezbollah as a whole and not just the military wing being designated in the UK is a very important and courageous step,” said Olivier Guitta, managing director of GlobalStrat, an international security and geopolitical risk consultancy. “The UK is sending a strong message to Iran, the main backer of the Shiite terror group, more than any other countries in the world.”

Said Bouteflika, 61, is well regarded by the U.S. and France, Algeria’s key foreign ally. “But his handicap is his last name,” says Olivier Guitta, who heads GlobalStrat, a security and geopolitical-risk consultancy. 

Of the 22 successful terror attacks in France since 2012, 97 percent were carried out by individuals known to have been radicalized, or otherwise known to police, according to Olivier Guitta, the managing director of GlobalStrat, a risk management firm that studies terrorism.

"The main issue throughout Europe is the sentencing, which is extremely lenient and also allows for terrorists/jihadists to be freed quite early for 'good behavior,'" said London-based terror expert Olivier Guitta, founder and managing director of the security firm GlobalStrat.

Mr Guitta pointed out that the Strasbourg attacker did not even follow one rudimentary jihadist practice: he ran away, rather than blowing himself up.He said Isis terrorism abroad was the “McDonald’s of jihad” — anyone could buy into the franchise. “Just the suspicion that they might be behind something or that their ideology was pushing it is enough for it to work,” he said.

“Any country that is a source of financing for Iran is going to see its position fall on Trump’s deaf ears,” said Olivier Guitta, managing director of GlobalStrat, an international risk consultancy. “Iran is for him the main thing. Those states with most to lose are those doing business with Iran.

Olivier Guitta, a former private banker who now advises banks on geopolitical risk at GlobalStrat, has been following developments in Saudi Arabia and Iran for over a decade. He is sure that, in both countries, the hotels favoured by bankers are emptying. Bankers, he continues, have become acutely aware of the renewed risk of dealing with these two markets.

Mr Guitta, boss of consultancy GlobalStrat, said Isis still has around 30,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria — and he said its success was down to its unique “business model”.

“Isis is the McDonald’s of terrorism,” Olivier Guitta, a security analyst, said. “Rather than be an elitist movement, by attracting anyone and everyone it can live on eternally.”

Looking at the dramatic rise of Islamic State from the ashes of al-Qaeda in Iraq, one can see that the US is not the only responsible party but the main factor is the sectarian divide exacerbated by successive Shia-led Iraqi governments.

1- Basra:

Issue with unregulated Militias totally uncontrolled by local government

Regional Govt not re-distributing any of the large wealth stemming from oil

Always more expats coming in the region

YTD 19 attacks against foreign civilians resulting in 11 deaths, all in the Oil and Gas sector; 4 attacks against private security contractors resulting in one death

“While the security services are excellent at identifying potential jihadists, the terrible lack of human resources means that they can monitor only a tiny tiny fraction of the suspects,” said counterterror analyst Olivier Guitta, who runs GlobalStrat, a London-based risk consultancy

"Macron has avoided antagonising both sides in this crisis, but he has built a deepening relationship with the country he feels more in tune with: the UAE," said GlobalStrat’s Managing Director, Olivier Guitta.

“Algeria is the country spending the most on defense on the continent and not sparing any expenses really there,” said Olivier Guitta, the managing director of GlobalStrat, a security consultancy in London.

"The obvious pitfall for this likely U.S.-France-U.K. strike on Assad is that the effect of surprise is totally lost but also has given enough time for the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran to get prepared" said Olivier Guitta, managing director at GlobalStrat.

Olivier Guitta, the founder of GlobalStrat, a security consultancy, said “The militias in Tripoli are the ones controlling these areas not Haftar. In fact his whole involvement in politics is to get support to re-establish control over these areas."

"Macron is extremely opportunistic and is filling the void left by the US and the UK in the Middle East, positioning France as a playmaker in the region along with Russia," said Olivier Guitta, the managing director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consultancy firm.

Olivier Guitta, a leading security expert has spoken of the European Union’s reliance on British intelligence after Theresa May pledged the UK’s commitment to European security.

"It's totally different than Nice and Berlin because it is a much more sophisticated plot involving many more people which is extremely serious and extremely concerning," Olivier Guitta, managing director of GlobalStrat, told CNBC on Friday.

Olivier Guitta, managing director at risk consultants GlobalStrat, told MailOnline: 'Homegrown jihadists have always represented a much larger threat than returnees because they represent a much potential larger pool, are much more under the radar than the ones that travelled to Syria/Iraq that are known to Western security services and would be picked up upon return.