Coup in Niger, just another one in the Sahel, USA Today, 29 July 2023
There were 13 military coups in Africa in recent years. Why does this keep happening?
Russia and Food Security, Fortune, 25 July 2023
Russia is weaponizing global food security in its war—but agribusiness is promising to come to Ukraine’s rescue.
A Soft Chinese Takeover of Taiwan, Conservative Home, 31 May 2023
The likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is very slim but that doesn’t mean Beijing won’t try to take over the island by other means avoiding an American intervention at the same time. The corporate world has taken note.
The Global War over AI has already started, Newsweek, 20 March 2023
While AI-assisted malware is certainly concerning, what remains the most alarming for the West is how artificial intelligence is changing the future of warfare—even faster than expected. The Chinese military has been investing heavily in intelligent warfare, making weapons systems and military operations more networked and autonomous.
What's Next for Iran? Akbar al-Aan TV, 16 Feb 2023
Let’s look at the most plausible scenarios that can play out in the next few months:
1- The clerics stay in place after having violently destroyed the rebellion
2- The clerics are replaced by a military dictatorship headed by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) that decide to forego all the religious aspects of life
3- The mullahs along with the Revolutionary Guards are kicked out and replaced by a coalition of various Iranian political actors including the Shah’s son, the seculars, and the Kurds.
Protecting western Critical Infrastructure from China is a must, Conservative Home 10 Feb 2023
That Chinese involvement in global telecommunications infrastructure is a weak point is not a new realization. In the wake of the Ukraine war and the shifting geopolitical landscape, however, this issue has received special urgency and should be the definitive wake-up call for Western allies on both sides of the Atlantic.
Iran's Terror Activity Soaring, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 29 Jan 2023
The terror threat from the Iranian regime is at the highest since the 1980’s. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the stabbing of Salman Rushdie should be a “wake up call for the West”. It wasn’t after Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa against the author in 1989, will it be any different now?
Islamic State in Syria opens a can of worms, Akhbar, 20 Jan 2023
The Islamic State’s re-emergence in Syria has opened a can of worms. So, to sum up, the U.S. is supporting the Kurds in Syria while its NATO ally Turkey is attacking the Kurds. Russia and the US, while at odds on everything else, agree that a Turkish ground invasion should be avoided at all costs. And finally, let’s not forget about Iran, the other stalwart ally of Assad that uses Syria as its advanced weapons warehouse. Who said geopolitics were not complex?
Did Russia have a hand in the failed coup in Germany?, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 20 Dec 2022
While Russia is focusing its war efforts on trying to rescue a war in Ukraine that is not going according to plan to say the least, Vladimir Putin has made no secrets that his real enemy remains the West. From cyberattacks to social media disinformation campaigns to election manipulation, the Kremlin has tried to destabilise the west ad nauseum in the past few years. Nonetheless the coup plot recently foiled in Germany that could have links to Russia is a dramatic escalation of Moscow’s subversive actions.
Another Scenario of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, Akhbar Al-Aan TV, 17 Nov 2022
China’s forceful power grab in Hong Kong with a muted international reaction has only emboldened Beijing to possibly try to take control of Taiwan in a subversive way. How would the U.S. and its allies react to a soft coup? China is likely to take over Taiwan but not the way you think. The risk reward of a Chinese military invasion is way too high, and the west should be prepared for more subtle tactics to gain control of Taiwan.
Russia Is Marching On In Africa, Akhbar Al-Aan TV, 9 Oct 2022
With the latest coup in Burkina Faso very much supported by Moscow, Russia is adding another potential satellite in the Sahel and the Wagner Group might be moving in soon there as well. Mali and the Central African Republic are already pawns of Moscow. Even with the focus being on fighting the war in Ukraine, Russian President Putin is still very much looking at Africa.
Russia's charm offensive in the Arab world, Sud-Deutsche Zeitung, 28 Aug 2022
Terrorism expert Olivier Guitta has been observing Moscow's increased involvement in the region for years. “Now Moscow is reaping the rewards. No country in the region has condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine," he says. Guitta believes that the main reason for sympathy for Russia is the vacuum left by the US government.
China's Threat in the Asia-Pacific, Akhbar al Aan TV, 29 July 2022
It is true that while the West was busy looking at the conflict in Ukraine, China quietly moved its pawns all across the Asia-Pacific region. In just the past month, numerous signs are pointing towards a much more aggressive military stance from Beijing. While a recent American military report pointed out that surprising shortfalls in China’s military logistics suggest a lack of conflict readiness, the superior might of the Chinese army over its direct neighbours make it a huge military threat.
China's Food Weapon and Spying, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 9 July 2022
Many countries have now realised that they should grow more food, but they have sold their best land to China. China has built a web of controlling not only some critical industries like the pharmaceutical but also natural resources; now with the food weapon, Beijing has a dramatic advantage over the west.
Is the West Shunning China?, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 27 May 2022
The first tipping point that triggered even more distrust of China actually happened after Russia invaded Ukraine with the surprising tough western sanctions and numerous companies leaving Russia altogether. In February, a poll found that 45% of German manufacturers and 55% of German retailers said they planned to reduce imports from China.
Russia's New Ultimate Weapon, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 2 May 2022
While the military threat is immense, Russia’s ultimate weapon might turn out to be a powerful malware. The malware is configured to initially target liquefied natural gas (LNG) and electric-power sites in North America but could go after any industrial site around the world. Most worrisome is that private experts assess that it would take years to develop strong defences against this new malware.
ISIS Can’t Even Direct Lone-Wolf Attacks Anymore, Foreign Policy, 26 Apr 2022
“It (ISIS) has not really pulled off any major attacks in Europe since 2017. Five years is a very long time for a jihadist group that used to be front and center on the security map,” said Olivier Guitta, managing director of the risk consultancy GlobalStrat.
Russia could attack its enemies abroad, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 20 Apr 2022
Like all rogue regimes including their Iranian ally, Russia would likely use asymmetric weapons such as terrorism to attack its enemies. Putin could use any means at his disposal to target enemy countries, likely via his de facto personal Private Military Company, the Wagner Group.
Isis urges jihadists to strike Europe and Israel while West is distracted by Ukraine, The Times, 18 Apr 2022
“Isis [believes it] needs to carry out attacks in Europe and in the US in order to regain credibility and put itself back in the news,’’ Guitta said. “The question is whether Isis has the logistical capacity to carry out a spectacular attack in Europe like in 2015 in Paris or 2016 in Brussels.’’
Russia-Ukraine War, SCMP, 14 Apr 2022
Olivier Guitta believes a prolonged battle in Ukraine is inevitable, despite the growing sanctions affecting Russia’s economy, because President Vladimir Putin won’t be satisfied until he achieves his ultimate goal – to “restore the great Russia.”
TotalEnergies staying in Russia?, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 13 Mar 2022
For now, the French government has not expressly asked TotalEnergies to pack up and leave Russia. It seems a given though that, under growing pressure and to preserve its reputation, TotalEnergies presence in Russia will have to be trimmed or even that it will have to leave the country altogether.
Putin Has Already Changed the Global Order, GLG, 11 March 2022
Putin also cemented key relationships in the Middle East and South America. He’s met recently personally with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Iran, and Israel, among others. It’s notable that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel — long-term classical allies of the U.S. — have de facto sided with Russia.
Wagner, enquête sur l’armée de l'ombre de Poutine, Challenges, 16 Feb 2022
“Avec Wagner, l’objectif de la Russie est de reprendre pied en Afrique, et d’en expulser l’ex-puissance coloniale française, résume Olivier Guitta, directeur général de GlobalStrat, un cabinet de conseil en risque géopolitique et sécuritaire.
Comment Wagner tisse sa toile au Mali, Challenges, 24 Jan 2022
“Si 15.000 militaires de la Minusma (Mission multidimensionnelle intégrée des Nations unies pour la stabilisation au Mali) et 5.000 soldats de Barkhane n'arrivent pas à sécuriser le nord Mali, ce ne sont pas 500 mercenaires de Wagner y vont y parvenir", estime Olivier Guitta, directeur général de GlobalStrat, un cabinet de conseil en risque géopolitique et sécuritaire.
Did LinkedIn delete my article to protect China? Akhbar al-Aan TV, 12 Oct 2021
I suspect the reason LinkedIn deleted my article has not much to do with Covid-19 but rather with my criticism of the Chinese regime: ”The crucial fact remains: even if one dismisses the lab leak theory, had China taken proactive measures to contain the pandemic in December 2019, the number of Covid-19 cases could have been mitigated by up to 95 %. For this, the international community needs to severely punish China for the coverup and lies that have cost millions of lives.”
More on the Wuhan Lab Leak Explanation, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 8 Oct 2021
The closest thing of a smoking gun might have been blurted by none other than Chinese President Xi who just sternly warned Chinese laboratories handling deadly pathogens that they will face closer scrutiny. Why would he say that if the lab leak theory as the origin of Covid-19 didn’t hold any water?
Russia and Iran’s Relation with the Taliban, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 1 Oct 2021
In fact, Russia and Iran have about the same profile: they are both enemies of the West but also of the Taliban. Despite a very antagonistic relationship with the Taliban over the years, both Moscow and Tehran have decided to try to make it work.
Mali, new theatre of Russian-French rivalry, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 23 Sep 2021
Bamako should decide in the next few weeks if it goes ahead with a deal with Russia’s Wagner group. Like in other African countries where Wagner is present, Vladimir Putin will use his classic tactic of plausible deniability, maintaining time and again that Russia has no military presence in the country and no links whatsoever with Wagner. The consequences of this decision will resonate throughout the region and beyond, possibly making Mali the hub for jihadists in Africa.
Biden's Lost Opportunity Over China, Conservative Home, 20 Sep 2021
In fact, the bigger picture is even more important than the huge defence contact since this AUKUS alliance, as it is called, is all about standing up to China. It is quite ironic that Biden has pushed away France from that alliance since in the past few months Paris has been one of the most sanguine to oppose China’s influence in the region.
Al-Qaeda-Islamic State War in Afghanistan, Akhbar Al-Aan TV, 18 Sep 2021
Islamic State has not lost an opportunity to lash out at the Taliban, its regional foe and ally of al-Qaeda, claiming the takeover of Afghanistan is a U.S.-backed conspiracy. IS seeks to present the Taliban as fake jihadists and alleges that the group is collaborating with the U.S.
Post-9/11, Europe’s weak spots make it a jihadist target, Associated Press, 10 Sep 2021
As it turned out, 2001 was a watershed year for jihadist terror activity in the United States and Europe. At the turn of the century, the United States “was the big prize for al-Qaida, not Europe,” says Olivier Guitta, managing director of GlobalStrat, an international security and risk consultancy firm in London.
China-Russia Illusory Honeymoon, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 28 July 2021
In March, Russia and China described their two countries as standing "back to back". In June, the leaders of Russia and China hailed increasingly close ties between their countries and announced the extension of a 20-year-old friendship treaty. In reality, this is more a pact of non-aggression rather than a military alliance.
Western Corporations Lobbying for China, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 21 Jul 2021
China wants U.S. business leaders to plead its case. In a December 2020 video call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the heads of American companies such as General Motors, Caterpillar and Qualcomm to “achieve a smooth transition of China-US relations.”
The Taliban's Rise Means An Increase of Terrorism Worldwide, Akhbar Al-Aan TV, 15 Jul 2021
While the U.S. is leaving in a hurry Afghanistan after 20 years, the countries possibly the most concerned by the consequences of this move happen to be America’s main enemies: namely China, Russia, and Iran. Indeed, while the threat of terrorism towards the West is significantly increasing, the same could be said about the three forementioned countries.
Russia’s influence-buying in Europe is paying off, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 26 June 2021
Moscow’s uber-aggressive stance against the West has taken many forms, including penetrating insidiously western democracies by buying influence, in particular in Europe. For instance, the link between Putin and French former PM François Fillon. The “useful idiot” was just appointed directly by the PM, Mikhail Michoustin, to become the representative of the Russian Federation in the oil state-owned company, Zarubejneft.
The Central African Republic: A France-Russia Proxy war, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 16 June 2021
A cold war is brewing between France and Russia. The battlefield is Africa with the central point being the poor Central African Republic (CAR). Up to 2,000 Russian soldiers and mercenaries from the Kremlin-linked Private Military Company, the Wagner Group, are deployed in the country to defend the interests of the president. Russia is moving very quickly in the CAR and France views that as a hostile takeover bid that it has to counter.
France leaving Mali? Akhbar al-Aan TV, 3 June 2021
Macron has also to face his domestic audience: in fact, for the first time, in January, after losing five soldiers in a week, a poll established that 51% of French people were not supporting the French military operation in Mali anymore. Some regional actors seem to think that Macron is bluffing because France or the west for that matter cannot afford Mali falling into the hands of the jihadists. Unfortunately, I believe this is a wrong assessment and that France will be out of Mali sooner rather than later.
Open War Between Jihadists, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 30 May 2021
Shekau left behind an enormous cache of arms that has now fallen in the hands of ISWAP. Also, many of Shekau’s fighters have already pledged allegiance to ISWAP or are in the process of doing so. It is now quite likely that the two groups will be merging, which is a very bad news for Nigerian security forces that will have to face off with an even more formidable enemy.
Behind Covid-19, the Wuhan Lab Theory gaining traction, Akhbar Al-Aan TV, 16 May 2021
It is documented that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were doing experiments designed to make coronaviruses infect human cells. Incidentally the year before, China found a Covid-19-like virus that it kept stored in a Wuhan laboratory. China failed to publicly share this crucial information about the sister virus to Covid-19, even though it is the strongest lead in the hunt for the origin of the pandemic. Furthermore, the security at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) left a lot to be desired.
Russia’s increased footprint in Africa, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 7 May 2021
Security agreements are key in building relationships with African nations and that’s why Russia has signed at least a whopping 19 military cooperation deals with governments in sub-Saharan Africa since 2014. Russia has also become the number one weapons provider to Africa.
Chad and Russia, Akhbar Al-Aan TV, 30 Apr 2021
After 30 years in power, the soldier/president Deby died of his injuries and was quickly replaced by his son Mahamat. The untimely death of the leader of the anti-jihadist front in the Sahel is a huge setback not only for France but also for the West. One country is nonetheless happy about Deby’s demise: Russia.
A New Caliphate in Africa? Akhbar al-Aan TV, 13 Apr 2021
The number of Islamic State (IS) attacks in Africa grew by more than a third just between 2019 and 2020. The Sahel, the Sinai, the Maghreb, Nigeria and Mozambique, just to name a few, have or are becoming major markets for Islamic State and are helping to contribute to a winning narrative for IS after the recent defeats in the Middle East. Now that its caliphate in Syria and Iraq is no more, potentially re-building a new one in Africa is a priority for the jihadist group.
Mozambique, Islamic State’s Latest Frontier?, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 7 Apr 2021
Islamic State in Mozambique has now become a huge force to be reckoned with: it has killed 2,600 people, made 670,000 people refugees and seized two major towns that could be the beginning of a new Caliphate. Furthermore, Total has yet again suspended work on the massive gas site and the viability of the project could be in jeopardy.
Why IS is so hard to defeat in Mozambique, BBC News, 1 Apr 2021
“Even though it is a local jihadist insurgency,” says Olivier Guitta of GlobalStrat, an expert on jihad in Africa, “al-Shabaab has established links to Islamist militias in East Africa. Radical spiritual leaders there have assisted with the religious and even military training of youths in Northern Mozambique.”
The EU is the weakest link vis-a-vis China, Akhbar al-Aan TV, 28 Mar 2021
Despite the flexing of muscles of Europeans such as French Minister Clement Beaune that said that "Europe is not a door mat", to the President of the EU Parliament, David Sassoli, saying that it "won't get intimated", China knows this is just show. Going forward, it is doubtful the U.S. will get the EU to join in for further sanctions against Beijing.